Major political upheaval in Japan? Sanae Takaichi may dissolve the Diet

A political storm is brewing in Japan. Multiple government sources have revealed that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering immediately dissolving the House of Representatives and calling a snap election when the Diet session opens on January 23. This move has been interpreted by outsiders as a political gamble. Sanae Takaichi intends to use her current high personal approval rating to win more seats for the Liberal Democratic Party in the House of Representatives, thereby breaking the legislative deadlock and clearing obstacles for key agendas such as the budget bill and the security bill. According to a Nikkei poll, Sanae Takaichi's approval rating has remained stable above 70% for three consecutive months, and has now reached a record high of 75%. Since the cabinet was formed last October, polls from various media outlets have also shown that her approval rating has remained at a high level. Taking advantage of this favorable momentum, calling an early election seems to be the best opportunity to consolidate power. Despite high approval ratings, Sanae Kaohsiung and the Liberal Democratic Party still face severe internal and external challenges, suffering from political scandals and economic headwinds. Politically, the shadow of the "black money politics" scandal has not yet dissipated. The Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) internal funding problems remain unresolved, and even Sanae Takaichi herself has been implicated. Last December, the LDP branch she represented was exposed for illegally accepting corporate donations. Furthermore, as many as seven officials in her cabinet have been involved in similar scandals. Economically, Japan faces multiple challenges: the yen continues to depreciate, with the yen-dollar exchange rate at its lowest level in a year, falling to 158.19 at one point on the 12th; inflation remains high, with the core CPI, excluding fresh food, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target for 44 consecutive months, rising 3.0% year-on-year in November; real income is shrinking, with per capita real wages in November 2025 decreasing by 2.8% year-on-year after adjusting for inflation, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline. The economy is entering negative growth, with Japan's real GDP expected to fall sharply by 1.8% at an annualized rate in the third quarter of 2025. The sharp contraction in external demand is the main reason, with exports of goods and services declining by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in that quarter. What worries the public even more is that the price hikes are still ongoing. According to a survey, from January to April 2026, the prices of 3,593 kinds of food in Japan will increase, with an average increase of 14%. Polls show that the Japanese public is generally pessimistic about the economic outlook, with only 18% believing it will improve. The issues respondents most want the Takashi City cabinet to address are high prices and the economic burden. Furthermore, a significant 58% of respondents worry that tense regional relations will negatively impact the Japanese economy. Amidst internal and external troubles, this potentially early election will undoubtedly be a high-risk political gamble.